Reactivation of U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela by Trump Administration
The ongoing crisis in Venezuela, marked by political turmoil, economic collapse, and widespread human rights violations, has called for a reassessment of the United States’ approach towards the Maduro regime. The Trump Administration implemented a series of sanctions in its first mandate aimed at crippling the Venezuelan economy and pressuring the government to restore democratic processes. However, the effectiveness of these sanctions under the Biden administration has been a topic of debate. This article argues in favor of immediately reactivating and potentially intensifying sanctions against the Venezuelan regime, considering the strategic, analytical, and intelligence perspectives. The Venezuelan regime is already concerned over a new Trump administration coming into power on 20 January 2025 and the effect it will have on the Maduro regime.
The Current situation in Venezuela
Venezuela is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, with a possible second wave of Venezuelan citizens fleeing the country due to food shortages, hyperinflation, and repression. The Maduro regime has consistently demonstrated its disposition to grip to power despite these challenges, often resorting to authoritarian measures to suppress dissent. The political landscape remains fragmented, with opposition leaders facing imprisonment or exile, leaving a vacuum of credible alternatives.
Strategic Rationales for Reactivating Sanctions
Reactivating sanctions against Venezuela serves multiple strategic purposes:
Pressure on the Maduro Regime: Sanctions can effectively squeeze the regime’s financial resources, making it increasingly difficult for it to maintain control. Targeting key sectors, such as oil and gold, which are vital to the economy, can lead to a significant decline in revenue. This pressure can foster internal dissent and weaken the regime’s grip on power.
Support for Democratic Movements: By reactivating sanctions, the U.S. can signal its commitment to supporting the Venezuelan people and democratic movements. This can bolster the morale of opposition groups and encourage civil society to mobilize against the regime.
Regional Stability: The Venezuelan crisis has repercussions for regional stability, contributing to increased migration and insecurity in neighboring countries. By reactivating sanctions, the U.S. can play a role in stabilizing the region and mitigating the flow of refugees and associated security risks.
Analytical Perspective on Sanction Effectiveness
While the initial sanctions imposed by the Trump Administration aimed to weaken the Maduro regime, their effectiveness have lost their intended purpose under the Biden administration. An analytical review reveals:
Increased Resilience of the Regime: The Maduro regime has adapted to sanctions by seeking alternative markets, particularly in countries like China, Iran, Russia, and Turkey. This resilience highlights the need for a more nuanced approach, targeting not only the Venezuelan economy but also external support networks.
Humanitarian Considerations: One of the criticisms of sanctions is their impact on the civilian population. However, carefully designed sanctions that exempt humanitarian aid can mitigate these concerns while still applying pressure on the regime. Ensuring that essential goods reach the Venezuelan people can maintain U.S. moral standing while addressing the humanitarian crisis.
Coordinated International Efforts: For sanctions to be effective, they must be part of a coordinated international strategy. Engaging allies in Europe and Latin America to impose similar measures can amplify the impact and create a unified front against the Maduro regime.
Intelligence Insights on the Maduro Regime
Intelligence assessments provide critical insights into the dynamics of the Maduro regime and its vulnerabilities:
Internal Divisions: Reports indicate growing rifts within the Venezuelan military and the ruling party. Targeted sanctions against high-ranking officials and their families can exploit these divisions, potentially leading to defections and a weakening of the regime’s cohesion.
Corruption Networks: The Maduro regime is deeply intertwined with corruption. Sanctions that focus on key figures involved in drug trafficking, money laundering, and human rights abuses can disrupt these networks, further destabilizing the regime.
Monitoring and Adaptation: Continuous intelligence monitoring of the regime’s responses to sanctions can serve to prepare future actions. Understanding how the regime adapts can lead to more effective sanction strategies and the identification of new targets.
Sanctions During the Venezuelan Crisis
During the crisis in Venezuela, the United States applied sanctions against specific Venezuelan government entities and individuals associated with the administration of Nicolás Maduro. Similar sanctions were also imposed by the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Panama, and Switzerland. By September 2019, the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported that 119 Venezuelans had been sanctioned by the U.S. and several other countries.
The early sanctions were a response to repression during the protests in 2014 and 2017, as well as activities occurring during the 2017 Constituent Assembly election and the 2018 presidential election. These sanctions targeted current and former government officials, including members of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice and the Constituent National Assembly, military and security forces, and private individuals accused of human rights abuses, degradation of the rule of law, repression of democracy, and corruption. Canada and the European Union began applying sanctions in 2017.
In August 2017, the Donald Trump administration imposed sanctions that prohibited Venezuela’s access to U.S. financial markets. In May 2018, these sanctions were expanded to block the purchase of Venezuelan debt. Beginning in January 2019, during the Venezuelan presidential crisis, the U.S. imposed additional economic sanctions on individuals and companies in the petroleum, gold, mining, and banking industries, as well as a food subsidy program. Other countries also imposed sanctions in response to the presidential crisis.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has played a vital role in administering and enforcing these sanctions, helping to ensure that U.S. financial institutions do not facilitate transactions that could support the Maduro regime. Companies in the petroleum sector managed to evade sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, and continued oil shipments. In October 2023, the administration of Joe Biden temporarily lifted some U.S. sanctions on the oil, gas, and gold industries in exchange for promises regarding the release of political prisoners and free elections in 2024. Most of the sanctions were reimposed in April when the U.S. State Department stated that the Barbados Agreement to hold free elections had not been fully honored, although waivers were allowed for some companies through individual licenses to continue operating in the oil sector. These actions by the Biden administration also served to once again fuel corruption by the Maduro regime but the opposition as well such as the case of Venezuelan fertilizer company Monomeros based in Colombia.
The U.S. had been concerned about Venezuelan narcotics trafficking since 2005 and Venezuela’s lack of cooperation in combating terrorism since 2006. In 2008, an executive order aimed to reduce terrorist funding in Venezuela through sanctions. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has used the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act to sanction at least 22 Venezuelans as of 2019.
Prior to the ongoing crisis, the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned three current or former Venezuelan government officials in 2008, citing evidence that they had materially assisted the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in the illegal drug trade. In 2011, four allies of Hugo Chávez were sanctioned for allegedly helping FARC obtain weapons and smuggle drugs.
U.S. President Barack Obama signed the Venezuela Defense of Human Rights and Civil Society Act in 2014, imposing sanctions on individuals deemed responsible for human rights violations during the protests. In February 2015, the U.S. Department of State imposed visa restrictions on Venezuelan officials linked to human rights abuses and political corruption.
As of August 2023, the Congressional Research Service indicated that the U.S. maintained sanctions on more than 110 individuals. In March 2015, President Obama declared Venezuela a threat to U.S. national security and ordered the freezing of property and assets of seven Venezuelan officials responsible for human rights abuses. The Obama administration imposed asset and visa sanctions against 110 Venezuelan individuals and eight entities.
In February 2017, Tareck El Aissami, Vice President of Economy, and his associate Samark Jose Lopez Bello were named as significant international narcotics traffickers. In May, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Maikel Moreno and seven members of the Venezuelan Supreme Justice Tribunal for usurping the functions of the National Assembly. In July, thirteen senior officials associated with the 2017 Constituent Assembly elections were sanctioned for undermining democracy and human rights.
In 2018, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned senior military officers amid ongoing corruption and repression. Just before the May 2018 presidential election, further sanctions were imposed on Venezuelans and companies involved in corruption and money laundering. The U.S. Treasury seized a private jet and imposed sanctions on Maduro’s inner circle in September.
During the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned individuals benefiting from corrupt schemes and those obstructing humanitarian aid efforts. Following the Venezuelan uprising in April, the U.S. removed sanctions against former SEBIN chief Manuel Cristopher Figuera, who had broken ranks with Maduro.
In 2020, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned individuals involved in the disputed National Assembly Delegated Committee election. The U.S. also sanctioned the president and board chairman of Rosneft for supporting Maduro’s government.
In 2022, after Joe Biden took office, the administration relaxed some restrictions in the petroleum sector, allowing Chevron Corporation to increase production. By July 2023, crude oil exports rose, driven by Chevron and new agreements allowed under sanctions. In October 2023, the Biden administration eased sanctions on the oil, gas, and gold industries based on an election agreement.
Following the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, the U.S. imposed sanctions on individuals associated with Maduro and the subsequent repression. Sanctions were also imposed on the petroleum sector, but waivers were extended to companies with existing assets in Venezuela. Overall, the sanctions have had a significant impact on Venezuela’s economy and its interactions with the international community.
Conclusion
Reactivating sanctions against Venezuela is not just a matter of punitive measures; it is a strategic imperative to support democratic movements, pressure the Maduro regime, and address regional stability concerns. An analytical approach reveals that while initial sanctions have had mixed results, an immediate reactivation of sanction by the Trump administration can be tailored to minimize humanitarian impact and immediately maximize political leverage. Intelligence insights into the regime’s internal dynamics and vulnerabilities further underscore the importance of a coordinated and strategic response.
The Biden administration continued to relax and ease sanctions even after the Venezuelan July 2024 presidential sham elections in favor of continued Venezuelan oil production to maintain low gas prices favoring the Biden-Harris campaign.
By immediately reactivating sanctions, the the Trump administration can reaffirm its commitment to the Venezuelan people, bolster opposition efforts, and contribute to a long-term solution to the crisis. The path forward requires a comprehensive strategy that combines sanctions, diplomatic efforts, and support for humanitarian assistance, ultimately aiming for a democratic and prosperous Venezuela.
These sanctions and others must be reinforced and made stronger. It is essential to include penalties and criminal charges for individuals and entities that help the regime evade sanctions, whether they are private citizens, corporations, banking institutions, or governments.
The tracking of money and assets must be prioritized by establishing a special federal task force to proactively address these issues. This will help ensure that important investigations and leads do not fall short of prosecution. The regime should be approached with the same principles utilized when combating organized traditional crime.
Credits
This article was developed using information from various media sources, including The New York Times, Reuters, BBC News, Bloomberg, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Their diligent reporting and regulatory oversight have provided critical insights into the complexities of the situation in Venezuela and the international response.
By
William L. Acosta, NYPD (Ret)
Jesús D. Romero, USN (Ret)
